By Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston
He reaches these conclusions in the course of the cautious techniques of an anthropologist—conducting actually 1000s of interviews and gazing and collaborating in dozens of labor teams in intelligence analysis—and so that they can't simply be brushed off as mere opinion, nonetheless much less because the sour mutterings of these who've misplaced out within the bureaucratic wars. His findings represent not only a robust indictment of how American intelligence plays research, but additionally, and fortunately, a advisor for a way to do better.
Johnston unearths no baseline usual analytic technique. in its place, the commonest perform is to behavior constrained brainstorming at the foundation of past research, therefore generating a bias towards confirming prior perspectives. The validating of knowledge is questionable—for example, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of undercover agent experiences does not enable checking out in their validity—reinforcing the tendency to appear for information that confirms, now not refutes, triumphing hypotheses. the method is possibility averse, with enormous managerial conservatism. there's even more emphasis on warding off errors than on imagining surprises. The analytic strategy is pushed by means of present intelligence, particularly the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's day-by-day short (PDB), that can be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston does not placed it fairly that manner, however the Intelligence group does extra reporting than in-depth analysis.
None of the analytic corporations understands a lot concerning the analytic concepts of the others. In all, there has a tendency to be even more emphasis on writing and communique talents than on analytic tools. education is pushed extra via the druthers of person analysts than by way of any strategic view of the enterprises and what they wish. so much education is on-the-job.
Johnston identifies the wishes for research of at the least 3 types of consumers—cops, spies, and infantrymen. the desires of these shoppers produce at the least 3 designated sorts of intelligence—investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical.
The study indicates the necessity for severe research of analytic tools throughout all 3, guided by means of expert methodologists. Analysts must have many extra possibilities to do fieldwork overseas. they need to additionally circulate even more frequently around the company "stovepipes" they now inhabit. those activities may supply them a richer experience for the way different businesses do analysis.
CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * bankruptcy - Findings * bankruptcy 3 - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * bankruptcy 4 - trying out the Intelligence Cycle via platforms Modeling and Simulation * bankruptcy 5 - Integrating Methodologists into groups of specialists * bankruptcy SIX - The query of overseas Cultures: fighting Ethnocentrism in Intelligence research * bankruptcy SEVEN - educational know-how: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence neighborhood * bankruptcy 8 - Organizational tradition: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * bankruptcy 9 - innovations: step one: spotting A basic challenge * bankruptcy TEN - Survey method * bankruptcy 11 - Q-Sort method * bankruptcy TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" challenge and Calculation of impression Size
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Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study - Working as an Intelligence Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Intelligence Papers by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston